Early Friday Morning

Word of warning. I am quite tired as I write this so it may not make sense, especially to someone who knows a lot about meteorology. Above are two outputs from the NAM/WRF model for 12z Friday (7:00am). Sorry I was lazy and did not mention the other models. The top one shows 700 mb height, omega (lift), and moisture. I went ahead and highlighted what is going on over Mississippi. If this model verifies it looks like we will have a line of thunderstorms pass through central Mississippi early Friday morning.
The bottom one shows sea level pressure, 1000-to-500 mb thickness and 6 hour rainfall. (Please note, the 6 hour rainfall is what has already fallen not what is falling). With the low pressure centered well to our north and other factors I am too tired to think of right now, these storms will probably not be severe, although one or two strong storms can not be ruled out.

Next Rain Chances

As we begin to dry out from the unusual heavy recent rains (>6 inches at my house for the month) we now look towards the end of this week for the next rain chances. Currently it looks to be in the Friday morning time frame. Several models (GFS/ UKMet/ European/ canadian (too early for the WRF)) place low pressure centerd ofer eastern South Dakota or extreme northeast Nebraska. This will send a cool front through our area. It looks right now that severe storms (if any) will stay to out north. More to come latter (including some of the upper air forecasts).

The Anticyclone

Anticyclone is basically a fancy term for high pressure. I just like the term because it sounds like some super menacing storm but brings fair weather. More stuff to come later.